The price of crude oil rises and falls sharply. Where is PTA raw material going in polyester industr

The price of crude oil rises and falls sharply. Where is PTA raw material going in polyester industry?

The price of crude oil rises and falls sharply. Where is PTA raw material going in polyester industry?

PTA and polyester plants are produced continuously, and the enterprises will lose millions of yuan if they stop production once

After a period of downturn, international crude oil prices rebounded sharply.

In the first half of this week, the international oil price continued to decline. WTI crude oil once fell below $20 / barrel, but was stimulated by the good news. On April 2 (Thursday), Brent crude oil market rose nearly 40%, WTI crude oil rose more than 30%. After that, although there was a fall, American oil and Petronas both achieved the largest one-day percentage increase in history. WTI crude oil futures rose $5.01, or 24.67 percent, to $25.32 a barrel in May. Brent crude oil futures rose $5.20, or 21.02 percent, to $29.94 a barrel in June.

On April 3, as of the press release, Brent crude oil futures rose by 10% to US $32.93/barrel; WTI crude oil futures rose nearly 5%.

At present, the oil market is in a state of imbalance between supply and demand. On the supply side, oil stocks are still high, and the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia is continuing; on the demand side, the outbreak of the global epidemic has hit the demand for crude oil. It is generally believed that in the long run, the crude oil price is still likely to fluctuate sharply at a low level.

Crude oil plummeted, but also hit the polyester industry raw material cost price.

Industry insiders told the first financial reporter that polyester industry chain is experiencing the coldest "winter" in recent years, with difficulties in returning to work, poor logistics, overstocking of inventory, and inconvenient capital turnover, all of which are constantly "pressing" enterprises. Recently, the overall inventory of PTA industry once overstocked up to one million tons, and most enterprises are facing difficulties in production and operation.

Weaving enterprises "return blood" slowly

Affected by the epidemic situation, each industry chain is facing different degrees of difficulties. Among them, weaving enterprises in the middle and last ten days of February ushered in a turning point in their production. Even so, the operating rate of polyester industry is still less than 60%.

Haitong futures report analyzes the current PTA fundamentals. From the perspective of absolute price, the crude oil price in the upstream petrochemical industry chain continues to fall sharply, while naphtha and PX follow the sharp drop. From the perspective of processing price difference, naphtha cracking price difference fell, PTA spot processing difference again compressed to a low position near 500 yuan.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has caused a great impact on the retail trade of apparel, according to the report of the Meyer futures. Textile and clothing consumption has certain seasonality, which is difficult to make up. The reason for the epidemic is that the Spring Festival peak season and the school opening peak season disappear, which affects the sales of winter clothing and spring clothing, causes the serious overstock of clothing enterprises, and has a great impact on the domestic sales of clothing. According to customs statistics, from January to February 2020, China's export of textile yarn, fabrics and products reached 13.772 billion US dollars, down 19.9% year on year, and export of clothing and accessories reached 16.062.3 billion US dollars, down 20% year on year.

"In general, PTA and polyester plants are produced continuously, and the loss of several million yuan will be generated when the enterprise stops production once, so the load production will be maintained under normal circumstances." Xu ji'en said that under the influence of the epidemic situation, the sales of PTA enterprises have been partially affected, but because several large PTA manufacturers rely on the advantages of integration of upstream and downstream from refining to polyester production, the operating rate of PTA industry in February did not change much, and it is because of this factor that the accumulation of high inventory is relatively obvious after the Spring Festival.

He said that according to the negative situation of maintenance in February, the overall production of polyester industry in that month was about 3.6 million tons, so the accumulated pressure of PTA supply and demand increased dramatically, and the accumulated storage in a single month expanded to around 1 million tons, a new record in the accumulated storage in a single month.

During the epidemic period, the enterprises using futures for hedging have basically solved the problem of the sales side, but also effectively resolved the risk of high inventory. "The company uses derivatives for risk management, and through strategies such as selling hedging, processing fee hedging and arbitrage, effectively solves risks such as inventory accumulation, cost rise and basis fluctuation."

"For the impact of the epidemic and crude oil slump, the company hedged and established positions in PTA futures in advance." Xu JINEN introduced that, first of all, it is the hedging of commodity price. The company chooses the opportunity to establish the corresponding short order on the futures and locks in the PTA selling price. In the future, when selling at the spot price, the company only needs to complete the transaction according to the reasonable price rise and discount of the market, turning the fluctuation risk of absolute price into the risk of basis, greatly reducing the risk of inventory depreciation caused by price fluctuation 。

In addition, the risk management of inventory is also carried out. According to the company's production and sales plan, the surplus inventory will be sold and delivered, and the capital will be collected to maintain its inventory at a reasonable level. During the epidemic, in addition to the sharp drop in crude oil price and the reduction of demand from some customers, the company had to increase the delivery strength on the pta2003 contract. The delivery and sales of about 50000 tons in the current month solved the problem of inventory accumulation and the problem of capital.

Xu ji'en said that at this stage, the polyester industry is very familiar with PTA futures and the utilization rate is very high. The PTA options that have been launched have also brought more exploration space to polyester industry chain enterprises. At the same time, when using derivative instruments, enterprises should pay attention to the real-time change of hedging position according to the production and operation of enterprises, adhere to the same hedging idea, remember not to make hedging transactions into unilateral speculative transactions, and pay attention to risk control.